HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK


...RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME AREAS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
   DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...

WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES...IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE
TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE
44...WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA TO FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS LINE.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR WATTS AND NEAR TAHLEQUAH
FLINT CREEK NEAR KANSAS
BARON FORK RIVER AT ELDON
ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN
LEE CREEK NEAR VAN BUREN
POTEAU RIVER NEAR PANAMA AND NEAR POTEAU
KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR ANTLERS.

A RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING...BUT IT IS NOT IMMINENT. FORECAST RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO CRITICAL STAGES. PERSONS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED
OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION AS NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION IN YOUR AREA.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK


...RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME AREAS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
   DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIDESPREAD BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF EIGHT INCHES MAY CAUSE RIVERS
AND STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

THIS RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ALONG THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR WATTS AND NEAR TAHLEQUAH...FLINT CREEK
NEAR KANSAS...THE BARON FORK RIVER AT ELDON...THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER AT VAN BUREN AND FOR THE POTEAU RIVER NEAR PANAMA.

A RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING...BUT IT IS NOT IMMINENT. FORECAST RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO CRITICAL STAGES. PERSONS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED
OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION AS NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION IN YOUR AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44....

A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...
  CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND
  WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...
   DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...
  MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...
  ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND WAGONER.

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH
  AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
  UP TO EIGHT INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
  RESULT FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

 

Expected Rainfall Amounts:

 

 

Max Potential Rainfall Amounts:

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
   WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...
   PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...
   PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...LE FLORE...LATIMER
   AND HASKELL.

   IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...BENTON...
   SEBASTIAN...CARROLL AND FRANKLIN.




HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
   SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
   OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WIND GUSTS
   TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IMPACTS...
* WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
   HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

DEFINITION...
* A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH ARE
   EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BE ALERT TO
   SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
   VEHICLE. EXTRA ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS AND ON
   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
   FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.
   ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

OKZ054>071-081800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.A.0005.111108T1200Z-111109T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-
MCINTOSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...
VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...
BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...
MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA
320 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...




THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...
  MUSKOGEE AND OKFUSKEE. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CRAIG...
   CREEK...DELAWARE...MAYES...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...
  OTTAWA...PAWNEE...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. IN
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MCINTOSH.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* 1 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH
AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

The National Weather Service Has Issued Tornado Watch 873 in Effect Until 4 AM CST Tuesday for The Following Areas

in oklahoma this watch includes 12 counties

in east central oklahoma

cherokee              muskogee              okfuskee            

in northeast oklahoma

adair                 creek                 delaware            

mayes                 okmulgee              rogers              

tulsa                 wagoner              

in southeast oklahoma

mcintosh             

this includes the cities of, bristow, claremore, eufaula, jay, muskogee, okemah, okmulgee, pryor, stilwell, tahlequah, tulsa and wagoner.

Very heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible in the watch area.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAIG                NOWATA              OSAGE
OTTAWA               PAWNEE              WASHINGTON

Todays risk is mainly west of Tulsa with heavy rain and damaging winds being the main threat. The time of the greatest risk for today will likely be after 2:00PM.

Here is the SPC's risk area for today:




Tuesdays severe weather risk includes heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes. While the Tulsa area is in the risk area, points east and southeast of Tulsa appear to be at a slightly greater risk.


Here is Tuesday's SPC risk map:

Risk is from Sunday night through Tuesday with the greatest threat Tuesday.
Heavy rain, large hail to the size of tennis balls, and even a risk of tornadoes.

Here is the NWS graphic depicting the threats.

Updates to follow...