...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
   WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...
   WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...PITTSBURG...MCINTOSH AND
   MUSKOGEE.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
   AND WILL BE MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
   THIS AFTERNOON. A QUICK HALF-INCH TO INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
   IS EXPECTED...WHICH COULD COLLECT ON ROADWAYS.

* A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...WITH THE
   HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
* THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH IN THE BAND TO ACCUMULATE ON SOME
   ROADS IN THE ADVISORY AREA...DESPITE ITS SHORT DURATION. WHERE
   THE SNOW ACCUMULATES ON ROADS YOU CAN EXPECT SLICK AND
   POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
   OVERPASSES AND NON-TREATED SURFACES.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY
   ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING. ATTEMPT TO STAY ON TREATED
   ROADWAYS. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...SEQUOYAH...
   PUSHMATAHA...LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS...
   BENTON...SEBASTIAN...WASHINGTON...CARROLL... MADISON...FRANKLIN
   AND CRAWFORD.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* RADAR ECHOS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING
   DRIZZLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
   FREEZING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY
   OCCUR.

* LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
   UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS...
   ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND NON-TREATED SURFACES.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
   FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING. ATTEMPT TO STAY ON TREATED
   ROADWAYS. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

DEC 27 2012

...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MAY PRODUCE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OFTEN RESULTS IN A VERY THIN...
ALMOST INVISIBLE GLAZE OF ICE ON ROADWAYS. EVEN JUST A VERY THIN
LAYER OF ICE CAN CAUSE A VEHICLE TO QUICKLY LOSE TRACTION. MOTORISTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS...AND ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE SPEEDS AND INCREASE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER
VEHICLES SHOULD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OCCUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

The models have shifted the storm well south and areas north of I44 look to only recieve possibly an inch or two of snow. For Tulsa, light freezing rain and sleet will develop by 6:00AM and should transition to snow by noon.

It does not appear the freezing rain of sleet will add up to much but bridges and overpasses will become slick and hazardous quickly.

Further south, significant snow could fall with totals reach 6-10 inches near I40.

If the storm tracks further north, snowfall amounts for Tulsa could increase. If it tracks further and further south as the models show, Tulsa could end up with very little snow.

The Winter Storm Warning for Tulsa has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory while the Winter Storm Warning has been extended further south.

It will be very cold and very windy across the entire area.

Here are the expected snowfall amounts from the Tulsa NWS:



Here are the latest warnings and advisories:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA CHRISTMAS
   DAY INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS
DAY INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN...QUICKLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA CHRISTMAS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

* SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO NEAR ZERO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.




FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
   WAGONER...TULSA...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...
   LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...
   MADISON...CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN... CARROLL AND FRANKLIN.



Tulsa NWS Snowfall Forecast (There are indications higher amounts could fall)



IMPACTS...
* ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS MAKING TRAVEL
   DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO CLOSED ROADS. POWER OUTAGES MAY
   OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
   WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* PERSONS SHOULD PLAN ON TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO SLICK SNOW PACKED
   ROADS. SOME ROADS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE OR CLOSED. PERSONS
   SHOULD CONSIDER TRAVELING TODAY OR TONIGHT...IF POSSIBLE...AHEAD
   OF THE WINTER STORM.

* IF TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...CONSIDER TAKING A WINTER
   STORM KIT ALONG WITH YOU...INCLUDING SUCH ITEMS AS TIRE CHAINS
   ...BOOSTER CABLES...FLASHLIGHT...SHOVEL...BLANKETS AND EXTRA
   CLOTHING. ALSO TAKE WATER...A FIRST AID KIT...OR ANYTHING ELSE
   THAT WOULD HELP YOU SURVIVE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

* MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND THE
   NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
   WINTER STORM.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$

Here is the snowfall forecast this Winter Storm Watch is based on. A north or south shift of this storm by 100 miles could dramatically change the snow for Tulsa.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH...CHOCTAW...CHEROKEE...
   ADAIR...OKFUSKEE...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...OKMULGEE...
   PUSHMATAHA...LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS...
   WASHINGTON...SEBASTIAN...CARROLL...MADISON... FRANKLIN AND
   CRAWFORD.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
   EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST OK ON INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
   NIGHT.

* UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
   IN THE WATCH AREA...MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE
   POSSIBLE

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
   ACCUMULATION IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* CONSIDER CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE
   SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND THE NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST
   THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WINTER STORM.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

It is looking like a potential white Christmas for parts of NE Oklahoma.

Snow should begin early Christmas morning and could be heavy at times.

There is some difference in the models concerning where the heaviest snow will fall but currently the it appears 1-4 inches is likely in Tulsa.

Parts of the area could get up to 4-8 inches of snow.

There could still be adjustments to the snowfall forecast so stay tuned for updates.

Here is the current Tulsa NWS snowfall forecast.



Here is another possible solution with the heaviest snows.

The models have tamed and it is currently looking like under 2 inches for most of the area through Dec 26. Snow should start Christmas evening and end early on the 26th.

Stay tuned to local media and NWS as the forecasts evolve.

Here is the latest Tulsa NWS snowfall forecast.

The last couple of model runs have again backed off on the snow for Dec 25-27th.
There has been some consistency today but things are still subject to change so if you have travels plans, stay tuned to the local media and NWS for updates as I hope things will become much clearer by Sunday night.

Right now, because of the inconsistencies, 1-3 inches for Christmas night and Dec 26 is a good place to be. It is expected to be a cold and wet Christmas day regardless.

It is also still shwoing a New Years Eve/New Years Day storm with 6-10 inches possible with it.


Here is the Dec 26 snowfall map according to the GFS model(as seen, it shows no snow):



Here is the Jan 1 snowfall map.

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              SEQUOYAH            

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 DELAWARE              MAYES               
OTTAWA                WAGONER              

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER             
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG           
PUSHMATAHA           

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...BENTONVILLE...
BERRYVILLE...CHARLESTON...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUGO...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MCALESTER...
MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...OZARK...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...
SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...VAN BUREN...
WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

There is a slight risk of severe across all of eastern Oklahoam this evening after 8:00 this evening.

Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary threats.

The SPC has issued a discussion concerning a possible tornado watch for this area.

The GFS model maintained for a run after my post yesterday but then backed off totally for a couple of runs and is now back saying 1-6 inches in parts of the area Dec 26-27 and another 1-4 on New Years Eve and New Years Day.

Again, this is still relatively far out and is subject change so these updates at this point are strictly to make everyone aware that there could be travel impacts after Christmas.

There is a chance of a dusting tonight from roughly I44 to the north but whatever falls will be light and due to ground temps, will not stick around very long.

Here is the latest GFS snow accumulation forecast for Dec 26-27.
The forecast for snow will likely change and there is still the possibiltiy there could be none so stayed tuned to the local media and this blog for updates leading up to Christmas.

The models continue to become more in agreement with a significant snow storm impacting the area on Dec 26-27  and another on Dec 31-Jan 1.

Please be advised that this forecast event is still several days out and future forecasts will likely change in regards to locations, amounts, and timing.

This is a preliminary advisory for those who plan to travel to be aware of the potential storm and to stay tuned to future forecasts.

Total snow amounts from both storms are show below on New Year’s Day with this particular model run being very generous with amounts of 12-18 inches shown across most of NE OKlahoma.

8-10 inches with the intial storm and 4-6 with the second one.

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...PUSHMATAHA...MUSKOGEE...CREEK...CHOCTAW...
   PITTSBURG...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TULSA...
   MCINTOSH...LATIMER AND HASKELL.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
   OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 AND WEST OF
   HIGHWAY 69 AS A RESULT OF GUSTY WINDS...UNSEASONABLY WARM
   TEMPERATURES...A DRY AIRMASS...AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

* STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.

IMPACTS...
* ANY FIRES WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL AND ENDANGER
   LIVES AND PROPERTY.

DEFINITION...
* A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24
   HOURS...FAVORING RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES.
   THE PRIMARY WEATHER FACTORS INCLUDE STRONGER WINDS...LOWER
   HUMIDITIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY AND AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT
   COULD START FIRES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.