TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 268
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
    
     TORNADO WATCH 268 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
    
     ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131-
     143-149-010900-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0268.130601T0425Z-130601T0900Z/
    
     AR
     .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     BAXTER               BENTON              BOONE              
     CARROLL              CRAWFORD            FRANKLIN           
     JOHNSON              LOGAN               MADISON            
     MARION               NEWTON              POPE               
     SCOTT                SEARCY              SEBASTIAN          
     WASHINGTON           YELL               
    
    
     OKC001-021-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-107-111-121-135-145-
     010900-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0268.130601T0425Z-130601T0900Z/
    
     OK
     .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     ADAIR                CHEROKEE            DELAWARE           
     HASKELL              LATIMER             LE FLORE           
     MAYES                MCINTOSH            MUSKOGEE           
     OKFUSKEE             OKMULGEE            PITTSBURG          
     SEQUOYAH             WAGONER            
    
    
     ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

From the Tulsa NWS:

Severe thunderstorms and significant flash flooding remain possible tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the primary threats. Heavy rains on already saturated soils will lead to dangerous and possibly life threatening flash flooding tonight and into tomorrow morning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 262 IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

OKFUSKEE             

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG                 CREEK                 MAYES               
NOWATA                OKMULGEE              OSAGE               
OTTAWA                PAWNEE                ROGERS              
TULSA                 WAGONER               WASHINGTON          

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...
CLAREMORE...MIAMI...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...
PAWNEE...PRYOR...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

WT 0262 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 90%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

Please verify your plans for taking cover NOW so when the times comes, you  can easily get into a safe place.

Storms are expected to form west of Tulsa and move into NE OK this afternoon between 3 and 4pm.
These storms will very rapidly become severe supercells that will be capable of producing hail to the size of baseballs and large, long track tornados, and heavy rain.

These storms will eventually form a line of storms which typically dramatically reduces the tornado threat. Tonight, tornados, hail to the size of baseballs, wind gusts to 70 MPH and widespread rainfall of 3-5 inches.

This threat will continue after dark so please ensure you have a way to get NWS weather alerts if you go to bed or are watching a movie not on Cox cable.

The Storm Prediction Center is expected to upgrade parts of the moderate risk area shown below to a high risk area with their 3:00 update.



The tornado risk noted below is expected to increase as well.



As is the hail threat:



A tornado watch should be issued shortly for far NE OK within the hour for storms forming further north.

Updates to follow....

Hail to the size of baseballs, tornados, even large tornadoes, and very heavy rain are all expected today and tonight.

As storms begin forming this afternoon between 3:00 and 5:00, all modes of severe weather will be possible. Right now is appears storms will begin to fire just NW of Tulsa and in south central OK. As the line develops and fills in into the evening, heavy rain and large hail become the primary threats. Hail to 3.5 inches in diameter and widespread 2-4 rains are expected.

Most rain and storms should end in the Tulsa are be very early morning.

Here is the NWS risk map for today:

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 252   
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
                  OK    
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013     
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     
* TORNADO WATCH FOR
                  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA    
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL 1000
                  PM CDT.     
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...      

SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES
                  POSSIBLE    

  
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY 

     
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

 

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 252   
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
                  OK    
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013     
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     
* TORNADO WATCH FOR
                  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA    
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL 1000
                  PM CDT.     
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...      

SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES
                  POSSIBLE    

  
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY 

     
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

 

The SPC has placed NE OK in a moderate risk are for this afternoon and evening.

A boundary is expected to be established near the Tulsa metro area this afternoon and evening.

Any isolated storm that forms and tracks along this boundary has the potential to evolve into a large and long track tornado.

This risk area includes the Tulsa Metro Area.


Storms are expected to begin firing by 2:00PM and will quickly become supercellular and could impact NE OK after that time.



Please prepare for severe weather now.


Here is the SPC risk area for today and tonight. Large, long track tornados are possible anywhere in the red.







There is another chance for severe weather on Friday as well but for now, stay focused on this afternoon and evening.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...MADISON AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE... MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE... OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON.

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON *
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. * THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE RAPID RISES ON CREEKS... SMALL STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. STAY

TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

There is a risk of severe weather today and tonight across all of NE OK. The primary threat time will be from mid afternoon through midnight.

Storms are expected to fire off the dryline west of Tulsa and track east. Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are possible in eastern OK. The severity of the storms will depend on many factors including how much dewpoints can increase, how much heating can take place, and where the boundaries from last nights and this mornings storms are. Please stay tuned to the NWS, local media, and this blog for updates.

Here is the NWS risk graphic for today:


Friday brings yet another chance of severe storms and also a chance of very heavy rain which, with last nights rain and any rain that falls today will likely result in flooding. A flash Flood Watch will likely be issued at some point in the next 24 hours for the Friday storms.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 244 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES



IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG                 MAYES                 NOWATA              
OTTAWA                ROGERS                TULSA               
WASHINGTON           

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...CLAREMORE...MIAMI...
NOWATA...PRYOR...TULSA AND VINITA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 244 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

OKFUSKEE             

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CREEK                 OSAGE                 PAWNEE              

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
PAWHUSKA AND PAWNEE.

As the newer model runs come in, it is looking more likely that thunderstorms will impact the area this evening, mainly after 6:00pm.

The severe threat should be large hail and damaging winds with an isolated tornado possible mainly west of highway 75. The overall threat with the line of storms will decline as they move east.

Thursday afternoon has the potential to be very stormy with damaging winds, very large hail to the size of baseballs, and tornado's, some possibly large so stay tuned...

There is a risk of severe weather tonight across NE OK, mainly after 6:00PM. Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are possible. The largest severe threat is mainly along and west of I35 where an SPC Moderate Risk Area exists. The storms are expected to weaken as they move east into the late evening or overnight hours but another complex is shown developing to the SW of Tulsa and moving into the Tulsa area by 6:00. This will need to be watched to see if it forms and how well it establishes its self if it does.

Thursday currently is listed as a Slight Risk day by the SPC but the ingredients for a possible significant severe weather outbreak could be in place across NE Oklahoma. This will need to be watched carefully and a higher risk could be placed on NE OK by the SPC for Thursday by late tonight.

Here are the Tulsa NWS risk maps for today and tomorrow and further updates will be posted today.



Below is Thursday's graphic. The positioning of the outflow boundary just north of Tulsa is one factor in where the most severe weather will occur and how severe it is.

Tonight, there is a slight risk of severe weather, mainly along the Kansas border. All of the area could see thunderstorms with hail, high winds, and heavy rain possible south of Tulsa this morning and after 7:00PM for the entire area.

Here is the SPC risk map for tonight:


Wednesday shows an increasing severe weather threat with the greatest chances just west and north of Tulsa but large hail, damaging winds, and tornados are possible at this time. The best chances for severe storms on Wednesday appears to be between 7PM and midnight.

Here is the Tulsa NWS risk map for Wednesday:


The risk area for Thursday includes all of NE Oklahoma all modes of severe weather. Here is the Tulsa NWS risk map for Thursday which shows very large hail, damaging winds, and tornados all possibly Thursday evening.


Updates to follow later today for tonights risk.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
202 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE              SEQUOYAH            

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

OKMULGEE             

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

HASKELL               LATIMER               LE FLORE            
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA          

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...
MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...POTEAU...SALLISAW...
STIGLER AND WILBURTON

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CRAIG...CREEK...NOWATA...
  OSAGE...PAWNEE...ROGERS...TULSA AND WASHINGTON...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...DELAWARE...
  HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OTTAWA...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH AND
  WAGONER.


* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
  MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS
  WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL
  AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF HEAVIEST RAIN
  IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 BY EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

* THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AS
  WELL AS RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS.

TORNADO WATCH 191 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-
049-051-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-
097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-
131-133-135-137-141-143-145-147-210300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0191.130520T1810Z-130521T0300Z/

OK
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


ADAIR                ATOKA               BRYAN
CADDO                CANADIAN            CARTER
CHEROKEE             CHOCTAW             CLEVELAND
COAL                 COMANCHE            COTTON
CRAIG                CREEK               DELAWARE
GARVIN               GRADY               HASKELL
HUGHES               JEFFERSON           JOHNSTON
KAY                  KINGFISHER          LATIMER
LE FLORE             LINCOLN             LOGAN
LOVE                 MARSHALL            MAYES
MCCLAIN              MCINTOSH            MURRAY
MUSKOGEE             NOBLE               NOWATA
OKFUSKEE             OKLAHOMA            OKMULGEE
OSAGE                OTTAWA              PAWNEE
PAYNE                PITTSBURG           PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE         PUSHMATAHA          ROGERS
SEMINOLE             SEQUOYAH            STEPHENS
TILLMAN              TULSA               WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$

Hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds, and tornados, including large and long track tornados are all possible.

Severe storms are likely across all of NE Oklahoma despite the highlight on the area between I44 and I40.



Here is the NWS tornado warning probability map for today. Higher numbers = greater chances:



There is also a flash flood threat present with 1-2 inches of rain possible across most of NE OK with amounts greater than 4 inches possible between I44 and I40.

As the evening progresses and into the overnight hours, flash fooding could become a concern.
A Flood Watch has been issued for the Illinois River due to the expected rainfall.

Here is the NWS expected rainfall through late this evening:


From a flood perspective, here is the NWS max rainfall map through Thursday.


The next update will likely be with the first tornado watch that is issued.

Here is a map with some more refined timing. It appears that storms will initiate west of Tulsa by 2:00PM impacting Tulsa as early as 4:00PM.

Updates to follow...

Severe storms are again expected to form around 3:00 and quickly become severe. Large hail, damaging winds, tornados, and tonight, flash flooding is expected.

Here are the SPC and NWS risk maps for today.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 188 UNTIL
6 AM CDT MONDAY WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 182.
THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES



IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE            
SEQUOYAH             

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK               
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA              
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA              
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA               
WAGONER               WASHINGTON           

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

HASKELL               MCINTOSH             

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...
CLAREMORE...EUFAULA...JAY...MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SALLISAW...STIGLER...
STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.

$$

TORNADO WATCH 182 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ATOKA               BRYAN
CADDO                CANADIAN            CARTER
CHEROKEE             CHOCTAW             CLEVELAND
COAL                 COMANCHE            COTTON
CRAIG                CREEK               DELAWARE
GARFIELD             GARVIN              GRADY
GRANT                HASKELL             HUGHES
JEFFERSON            JOHNSTON            KAY
KINGFISHER           LATIMER             LE FLORE
LINCOLN              LOGAN               LOVE
MARSHALL             MAYES               MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH             MURRAY              MUSKOGEE
NOBLE                NOWATA              OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA             OKMULGEE            OSAGE
OTTAWA               PAWNEE              PAYNE
PITTSBURG            PONTOTOC            POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA           ROGERS              SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH             STEPHENS            TULSA
WAGONER              WASHINGTON
$$

Thunderstorm winds to 85MPH, hail to the size of softballs, and tornados, some possibly violent, are all possible across most of NE Oklahoma today after 5:00pm.

Please review your severe weather safety rules and prepare for this outbreak before watches and warnings are issued.
Another round is expected on Monday as well.

Here is the Tulsa NWS risk map for this afternoon/evening as well as the SPC's risk map.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
177 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

OKFUSKEE             

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG                 CREEK                 MAYES               
NOWATA                OKMULGEE              OSAGE               
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA               
WAGONER               WASHINGTON           

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...
CLAREMORE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...
PRYOR...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.

There is a light to moderate change of thunderstorms tonight across parts of NE OK with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat.

Very severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening with damaging winds, baseball size hail, and tornadoes, some possibly violent in the Tulsa area as early 8:00pm.

Updates in the morning but here is a Tulsa NWS graphic from tonight.

Currently the risk focus is on Sunday evening where most of central and eastern Oklahoma will be in the higher risk area. Damaging winds, hail to the size of baseballs, and tornados are possible during this time frame. Monday introduces locally heavy rain as an additional hazard.

Below are the current Tulsa NWS risk map and the SPC risk map for Sunday. NE Oklahoma seems to be most likely impacted after 3:00PM on Sunday.

A heads up for what appears to be a potential severe weather outbreak for Oklahoma heading into the work week.

The slight risk area includes most of NE Oklahoma. Heavy rain, large hail, and damaging winds are the primary threats.

Here is the SPC risk area:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1
PM CDT FRIDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...OTTAWA AND DELAWARE. IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...
   WASHINGTON...CARROLL AND MADISON.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN
   UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
   ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF ENOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
   SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION.

* LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
   MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND
   ELEVATED SURFACES. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
   VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES.

IMPACTS...
* ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TREES THAT HAVE LEAFED OUT COULD BE ENOUGH
   TO CAUSE LIMBS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN BY THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW.
   THIS CAN POTENTIALLY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES IN A FEW AREAS. A FEW
   BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK DURING HEAVIER PERIODS
   OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST
   ARKANSAS.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINTERY PRECIPITATION MAY
   ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING.





FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...WASHINGTON...PAWNEE...NOWATA...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...
   OKMULGEE...TULSA...ROGERS AND OSAGE.

* THIS REPLACES THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
   DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
   WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 75 INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TULSA
   METROPOLITAN AREA.

IMPACTS...
* THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL PLANTS AND OTHER TENDER VEGETATION
   THAT ARE LEFT OUTDOORS OR UNPROTECTED.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* IF YOU HAVE PLANTS...SMALL TREES OR OTHER TENDER VEGETATION
   WHICH COULD BE HARMED BY A FREEZE...TAKE THE TIME NOW TO
   PROTECT THEM. POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE
   COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

 * IN OKLAHOMA...OTTAWA...DELAWARE...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...WAGONER
   AND MAYES. 

 * IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...WASHINGTON...CARROLL AND MADISON.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
   APPROACH FREEZING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
   DURATION OF ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO BE ONLY FOR
   A FEW HOURS EACH NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
* THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL TENDER VEGETATION THAT ARE LEFT
   OUTDOORS OR UNPROTECTED.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZE WATCH MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SMALL PLANTS AND
   TENDER VEGETATION.


A Rain/Snow mix is expected late tonight into Friday morning with little to know accumulations expected at this time.

AN UNPRECEDENTED LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTH-
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 30S BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY IN SOME
AREAS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND THE ADVANCING
FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION BACK IN
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT NEAR
SURFACE TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS CHANGE OVER DOES INDEED OCCUR...THE SNOW
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY
OR ELEVATED SURFACES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT
SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ON FULLY LEAFED TREES...WHICH...COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...COULD CAUSE LIMBS
TO BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES WHERE THE SNOW
IS THE HEAVIEST. ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WET DUE TO THE WARM
ROAD TEMPERATURES...BUT COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME SLUSHY IF THE
SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS
EXTREMELY RARE EVENT UNFOLDS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...
   CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...TULSA AND ROGERS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
   TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY FALLING NEAR FREEZING
   IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE
   PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK ENOUGH
   TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHOULD SKIES
   CLEAR FASTER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE...THE LIKELIHOOD
   OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL INCREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY.

IMPACTS...
* THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL PLANTS AND AND OTHER TENDER
   VEGETATION THAT ARE LEFT OUTDOORS OR UNPROTECTED.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZE WATCH MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SMALL PLANTS AND TENDER
   VEGETATION.